Antigua and Barbuda Revises GDP Growth Outlook Down to 4%

Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is now expected to grow by about four percent in 2026, down from the six percent expansion previously projected, as rising global fuel and food costs weigh on economic activity.

Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Gaston Browne said international developments, particularly ongoing tensions in the Middle East, have forced the government to lower its growth expectations for the year.

Speaking to state media, Browne said the administration had initially forecast stronger economic performance but has since revised its outlook amid uncertainty in global markets.

“We were optimistic at the start of the year and projected growth of around six percent. Based on current conditions, however, we now expect growth to be closer to four percent,” he said.

Browne noted that while the revised figure is below the original forecast, it remains a healthy rate of expansion and compares favourably with projections for several other Caribbean countries.

He pointed to disruptions affecting the global energy sector, including concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, as a major factor behind increasing fuel costs. Antigua and Barbuda, like many small island states, relies heavily on imported petroleum products and is therefore vulnerable to fluctuations in international prices.

The Prime Minister also warned that higher transportation and fertilizer costs are contributing to rising food prices worldwide, placing additional pressure on economies dependent on imports.

Despite the challenges, Browne expressed confidence that improving geopolitical conditions could help restore momentum later in the year.

“We are hopeful that these issues will be resolved and that economic activity will strengthen during the final quarter of the year, putting us in a good position heading into 2027,” he said.

He added that even with the revised forecast, Antigua and Barbuda is still expected to record one of the stronger growth performances in the region.

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