Tropical System Now Has 60% Chance of Developing

A weather system in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic now has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In its 2 a.m. Monday update, the center said a small area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

The system is moving slowly westward and is expected to merge within the next few days with a tropical wave currently over West Africa. Forecasters said conditions should become more favorable for development by midweek.

A tropical depression could form during the latter half of the week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

The chance of formation is estimated at 20% within 48 hours and 60% within seven days, up from 10% and 50%, respectively, in Sunday night’s outlook.

Two other Atlantic systems are also being monitored.

A tropical wave located about midway between West Africa and the Lesser Antilles has a 20% chance of development within seven days. Some gradual development is possible as it moves quickly westward, but upper-level winds are expected to become less favorable as it approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week.

Forecasters are also tracking a trough of low pressure west-northwest of Bermuda. It has a 10% chance of development through seven days as it moves eastward across the western and central subtropical Atlantic. Its chances of formation are expected to end after Wednesday as it reaches cooler waters.

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