Tropical Wave Given 20% Chance of Development as Atlantic Approaches Peak of Hurricane Season

A tropical wave expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa next week has been given a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone as the Atlantic basin moves closer to the climatological peak of hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center said Saturday that the wave is expected to move off Africa on Tuesday, with some development possible during the middle to latter part of next week as it travels westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

The system has a near-zero chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a 20% chance through the next seven days.

The area being monitored remains thousands of miles east of the Caribbean, and the NHC has not indicated that the system currently poses a threat to any land area.

Its appearance comes after an unusually quiet start to the Atlantic season. The NHC noted earlier this week that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity remained low entering August, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE — a measure of the overall strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes — running about 75% below normal.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, although the majority of activity historically occurs between August and October.

The new area of interest also comes as NOAA has revised downward its expectations for the remainder of the 2026 season. The agency now forecasts a 75% chance of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

NOAA’s updated outlook calls for a total of seven to 13 named storms for the season, of which two to six are expected to become hurricanes. Between zero and two are forecast to strengthen into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

The revised numbers represent a significant reduction from expectations issued before the start of the season and reflect atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have generally been less favorable for tropical cyclone activity.

Despite the quieter outlook, the most active portion of the hurricane season is still ahead. Atlantic activity typically increases markedly during August and September as tropical waves routinely emerge from Africa and move across the warm tropical Atlantic.

As of Saturday morning, there were no active tropical cyclones anywhere in the Atlantic basin, according to the NHC.

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