Analyst Says Three Marginal Seats Likely to Decide General Election Outcome

With general elections a week away, political analyst Arvel Grant says the outcome will likely be decided in three closely contested constituencies: City East, St. George and St. Mary’s North.

“City East, St. George and St. Mary’s North were all decided by less than three percent,” Grant said, noting that the narrow margins make the races highly competitive. “That means neither the ABLP nor the UPP can be realistically confident of winning any of them.”

Grant said the opposition United Progressive Party must hold the six seats it secured in 2023, win City East and St. Mary’s North, and rely on its Barbuda People’s Movement partner to retain its seat in order to form government. “That combination would give the UPP the numbers needed to form the government,” he said.

For the ruling Antigua and Barbuda Labour Party, Grant said the path is more straightforward but still uncertain. The party must retain its core eight seats and secure at least one of the three marginal constituencies. “If Labour retains its base and picks up just one of those marginal seats, it crosses the line,” he added.

Grant also identified Rural East, Rural North and St. Paul’s as additional areas to watch, citing their history of shifting voter support. “These are not fixed seats — they are responsive to national mood and local dynamics,” he said.

He pointed to voter registration and turnout as key factors that could influence the result. “High levels of re-registration can sometimes favour the opposition, while low turnout can lead to unpredictable results,” Grant said, urging both parties to mobilise their supporters.

“Ultimately, the path to government will run through the three marginal seats,” he said. “Whatever happens, the election will likely be determined by City East, St. George or St. Mary’s North.”

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