Dry Conditions Could Increase Wildfire Risk, Forecasters Warn

Dry weather conditions forecast for the first half of 2026 could increase the risk of wildfires across Antigua, according to the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service.

Meteorologists say below-to-near normal rainfall expected through February and into early spring may lead to drier vegetation and heightened fire risk, particularly if prolonged dry spells continue .

The warning follows a dry December, during which Antigua recorded well below-normal rainfall, while Barbuda experienced extremely dry conditions, including a 21-day dry spell, the report showed. Those conditions have left vegetation more vulnerable as the dry season continues.

While daytime temperatures are expected to remain near normal, forecasters noted that above-normal night-time temperatures are likely, a factor that can accelerate drying of vegetation by increasing evaporation and limiting overnight moisture recovery.

The Meteorological Service also indicated that short-term drought conditions are likely to develop by the end of February, with the potential for moderate or worse drought by April if rainfall deficits persist. Dry conditions extending into the early wet season could further elevate wildfire risk, especially in bushy and grass-covered areas .

Forecasters emphasized that the outlook does not guarantee wildfire outbreaks but signals an increased risk environment, particularly during periods of strong winds, low humidity and human activity such as land clearing or burning.

Officials encouraged continued vigilance during the dry season and advised the public to exercise caution with open flames, debris burning and other activities that could ignite fires as conditions remain dry.

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