Russia tries to freeze Ukraine as it suffers record casualties and retreats 

Russia suffered its highest losses of 2026 in September, when 46,230 of its soldiers were killed or wounded, according to the Ukrainian military.

The new record comes after Russian casualties of about 40,000 a month since June, and is close to the goal Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy set in January of 50,000 Russian casualties a month. Russia reportedly lost 2,090 troops on September 28 – its highest 24-hour casualty rate of the war.

Al Jazeera cannot verify casualty claims from either side. Ukraine says it has video of each casualty, as more than 90 percent of them are caused by first-person view (FPV) drones.

But despite setbacks, Russia has been trying to seize the remaining areas of Ukraine’s eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk that it doesn’t control — which is where casualties have been heaviest.

Ukraine’s Third Army Corps has inflicted particularly heavy losses in the area around Lyman, where the third phase of a counteroffensive called Operation Vivaldi has reclaimed 176sq km (68sq miles) of territory in recent weeks.

Corps commander Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky said it succeeded by feigning an attack from the west, and “forced it [the Russian army] to senselessly burn through its reserves in counterattacks precisely in that direction”. Then it attacked from the north.

Among its tactics was the use of remotely operated Russian armoured personnel carriers filled with explosives that smashed into Russian defences.

A Ukrainian commander on the Lyman front described how Vivaldi’s first phase eliminated a vanguard of Russian soldiers. Ukrainian drone operators have also been busy disrupting Russian ammunition and fuel supplies, starving the front.

Russia denied the Ukrainian counteroffensive’s gains, posting videos as purported evidence.

Russia has frequently claimed to hold positions and gain territory. But assessments by the Institute for the Study of War and DeepState, organisations that track territorial gains using open source, geolocated footage, rarely reflect Russian claims on their maps.

The ISW has estimated Russia’s net gains this year at 148sq km (57sq miles), nowhere near the 5,300sq km that Russia claims.

Russia pounds Kyiv

Still, Russia pounded Ukraine’s cities during the past week, striking energy infrastructure but also residential buildings, kindergartens, schools, office buildings and other nonmilitary targets.

Several people were killed on September 28, when a drone destroyed part of the National  Academy of Sciences in Kyiv.

Kyiv experienced power outages on September 30, when Russian drones struck a thermal power plant in the Kyiv region. At least five people were killed across the country.

“Since the summer, there has not been a single day when the enemy has not attacked energy infrastructure. However, such a massive and combined attack has not occurred since the end of the last heating season,” wrote Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi on social media.

Zelenskyy has warned for weeks that Russia intends to strike Ukraine’s energy sector hard to cause suffering this winter.

On September 30, Russia also tested a drone with a cumulative cutting warhead “specifically designed to destroy high-voltage pylons,” said Ukraine’s defence ministry electronics adviser Serhii Beskrestnov. “I believe the enemy’s plan is to attack important high-voltage power lines.”

Russia has also targeted data centres during September, in an apparent effort to disrupt connectivity and digital commerce.

Ukraine has been suffering from a shortage of interceptors with which to stop ballistic missiles, and several got through on September 30, Zelenskyy said. Ukraine believes it can manufacture interceptors faster and more cheaply than its allies if the technology is shared.

Zelenskyy had persuaded US President Donald Trump to allow Ukraine to manufacture interceptors for the Patriot system under licence at the NATO summit last July, but Trump later retracted the offer.

Jet-powered drones are a recent challenge, too. Ukraine had mastered the art of shooting down propeller-powered ones, eliminating well over 90 percent. During the week ending October 1, however, they downed only 81 percent of the 1,933 long-range aerial drones Russia launched because many of them were jet-powered.

“Ukraine’s interception rate for jet-powered “shaheds” is now 55 percent,” Zelenskyy wrote.

Worse may be to come. Beskrestnov said Russia was working on a system of radio beacons to better guide drones.

“This system will allow them to navigate deep within our territory, at a distance of up to 100 km. This essentially means the ability to accurately attack a vast portion of Ukraine,” he wrote.

Zelenskyy said Russia planned to spend $12bn on jet-powered drones and loitering munitions next year.

Ukraine strikes back

Ukraine, too, has continued deep strikes against Russian refineries to starve its war machine of fuel and disrupt its economy.

Ukrainian drones struck the Perm and Novoshakhtinsk refineries on September 25, and the Ilsky refinery the following day. Two days later, they struck four oil deposits in the Krasnodar Krai region.

Ukraine also struck defence industries. On September 25, it struck the NPP Zavod Iskra factory, which makes electronic components for the Kh-59 cruise missiles Russia flies into Ukraine, and the Pantsir-S air defence system. It also struck the Efremovsky Synthetic Rubber Plant, which makes solid rocket fuel for the Iskander-M ballistic missile.

The next day, Ukraine hit the foundry and five buildings of the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant, which makes optics for artillery, missile and antitank weapons.

Cost overruns

Both Russia and Ukraine have outspent their defence budgets for the year.

Ukraine said it was looking for an additional $27bn, in meetings with the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund.

“Part of these resources is needed immediately for advance payments for supplies that are expected to arrive in the first quarter of 2027,” said Prime Minister Koretskyi.

Some of the money would come “by reallocating funds”, he said, but “we are also counting on support from the EU”.

It was a similar story in Russia, which has spent 30 percent more on its war in the first half of the year than the same period last year, according to the Ukraine Foreign Intelligence Service.

Reuters cited leaked Russian government documents indicating that Russia plans to raise its defence spending by another 27 percent next year. It put the estimated budget at $204bn for 2027.

Moscow planned to pay for the increase through extra borrowing and budget cuts to nonmilitary expenditures.