Netanyahu mulls Saudi, Turkiye, Pakistan pact as Israeli elections loom 

Israel is yet to officially respond to a defence agreement signed in Mecca by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye, which some analysts have perceived as a challenge to Israeli regional expansionism.

Turkiye, viewed as Israel’s next nemesis in waiting, nuclear-powered Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, which Israel has been eager to normalise relations with, signed the Mecca Joint Defence Pact on Friday.

Among the most significant points of this new military alliance is a stipulation that “any armed attack against any one of the three States shall be regarded as an attack against them all”.

Analysts and government insiders have suggested that the Israeli leadership will likely take advantage of Saturday’s lull – when Israeli politicians typically take a break to mark the Sabbath – to consider the full implications of this new regional formation.

Turkiye is widely perceived by Israeli politicians of all stripes as a threat. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s comments last month that Israel was a “burden that humanity can no longer bear” were seized on by Israeli politicians, including Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, who said this was a “textbook incitement to genocide”. Turkiye has been a strong critic of Israel’s war on Gaza, which has killed at least 72,000 Palestinians and is widely perceived by scholars and international rights groups as a genocide.

Meanwhile, Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in June that Israeli invasions in Syria and Lebanon were a direct threat to Ankara. “Turkiye’s security does not begin in Hatay [the country’s southernmost province], but also in Aleppo, Damascus and Beirut,” he said. Netanyahu responded by calling Erdogan an “anti-Semitic dictator”, unfit to preach morality to Israel.

Pakistan, which does not recognise Israel, has also been the target of Israeli ire. In April, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif described Israel’s deadly assaults in Lebanon as “evil” and called the country a “curse for humanity”.

The Israeli prime minister’s office claimed the subsequently deleted social media post was a “call for Israel’s annihilation”.

Saudi Arabia, which Israel has reportedly been seeking to normalise ties with, is viewed as less of a concern by Israel.

Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump have both strongly pushed for Saudi Arabia to be included in the so-called Abraham Accords.

The Israeli prime minister’s office described a nuclear agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel as a “historic leap forward for peace”. But Riyadh has kept its distance from this normalisation process – which includes neighbours the UAE and Bahrain – since Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza began in October 2023.

Netanyahu’s attacks on more than six countries in the region since 2023 – including the February 28 US-Israeli assault on Iran – have had a huge impact on Saudi Arabia, which has been repeatedly targeted by Iran on the pretext that it hosts US forces.

“For Riyadh, the experience of the current war has reinforced an uncomfortable conclusion,” Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera. “American military power remains indispensable, but an American relationship does not guarantee immunity from attack and does not necessarily mean Washington will act according to Saudi priorities. Saudi Arabia, therefore, wants more strategic depth and more options.”

Many perceive the recently announced – but long touted – Mecca Joint Defence Agreement as a response to the US-Israeli war on Iran, which comes amid major regional developments.

Netanyahu himself has pursued a “hexagon of alliances” made up of Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Pakistan’s nemesis India, along with other unnamed Arab, African and Asian states.

While the Saudi-Pakistan-Turkiye pact was undoubtedly shaped by these developments, it is also the result of other considerations.

“Above all, this defence pact reflects a lack of trust in the US and its ability or willingness to protect its Middle Eastern allies,” Bregman told Al Jazeera.

“I believe that this pact is ‘holding hands together’ to confront Iran more than confronting Israel. Though I doubt these countries will come to each other’s help if, say, Iran attacks a Saudi tanker. From an Israeli point of view, the main negative aspect in the pact is that Turkiye, which has emerged as a serious challenge to Israel, is part of it.”

Turkiye has been a useful foil for Netanyahu for some time, particularly as Israelis go to the polls in October to decide the country’s next government. Netanyahu has conducted a blitz of interviews, phone calls and statements in recent months, attempting to block the sale of US F-35 jets to Ankara.

Analysts at Haaretz have suggested that Netanyahu might be using Turkiye as “a useful new strategic rival” to bolster his security credentials in the run-up to the general election, with Netanyahu neck-and-neck with his rival Gadi Eizenkot according to recent polls.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, and another critic of Netanyahu, in February labelled Turkiye as “the new Iran” and warned of Ankara forming a “hostile Sunni axis with nuclear Pakistan”.

His supporters will view the pact announced on Friday as a vindication of Bennett’s earlier security assessments, and this could have implications for Israel’s ability to act in Lebanon, Syria and Israel.

For now, the Turkiye-Saudi-Pakistan security nexus will likely be a key part of campaigning between Netanyahu and his opponents in the build-up to October’s general election.

“Everything is heightened in election season. Netanyahu’s been highly critical of Turkiye, but Bennett’s been even more extreme on the issue, framing it as the new Iranian-style challenge in the region,” former Israeli government adviser and now critic Daniel Levy told Al Jazeera.

“My guess is they’re either going to use this as a means to criticise Netanyahu and portray this – especially Saudi Arabia’s inclusion- as a diplomatic failure,” he said. “Netanyahu, for his part, might seek to downplay this, pointing to what he’ll claim is the more important relationship with [Pakistan’s rival] Narendra Modi’s India as one he has personally nurtured.”