NOAA Revises Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, Still Expects Below-Normal Season

NOAA Maintains Forecast for Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has maintained its forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing strengthening El Niño conditions that are expected to continue suppressing tropical cyclone activity as the climatological peak of the season approaches in early September.

In an updated outlook released Thursday, NOAA said the Atlantic basin is expected to produce between seven and 13 named storms, including the two tropical storms that have already formed this season. Of those, two to six are forecast to become hurricanes, with zero to two expected to reach major hurricane status, defined as Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h).

The agency said there is a 75% chance the season will finish below normal, a 20% chance of near-normal activity and only a 5% chance of above-normal activity. The updated outlook is largely unchanged from NOAA’s initial forecast issued in May.

A typical Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Only two named storms — Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha — have formed so far this season, and neither intensified into a hurricane. Both developed in the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall in Louisiana after bringing heavy rainfall and, in Arthur’s case, spawning tornadoes along the Gulf Coast.

NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said the impacts of tropical storms extend beyond wind strength.

“Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, as Arthur demonstrated,” Graham said. “That’s why it’s important to prepare for every storm that’s projected to impact your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength.”

Forecasters said the primary factor limiting Atlantic storm activity is the strengthening El Niño, which emerged in the equatorial Pacific in June. El Niño increases vertical wind shear across the Atlantic, making it more difficult for tropical systems to form and intensify.

Matt Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster, said El Niño has become the dominant influence on the 2026 season.

“When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Niño continues to get stronger every month,” Rosencrans said. “Compared to a mature El Niño, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.”

Other climate factors influencing the outlook include near-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a neutral West African monsoon, both of which are expected to have less impact than El Niño.

While Atlantic activity is expected to remain subdued, NOAA said El Niño is contributing to an above-average hurricane season in the Pacific. The agency continues to forecast 15 to 22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific, where seven named storms have already developed, including two hurricanes and one major hurricane. An above-normal season is also expected in the Central Pacific.

NOAA emphasized that its seasonal outlook is not a forecast of where storms will make landfall. The agency noted that landfall depends on short-term weather patterns that can generally only be predicted about a week in advance, with the National Hurricane Center providing regular forecasts, watches and warnings for individual storms.

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