Antigua and Barbuda Among CARICOM Nations Facing Falling Birth Rates

Where CARICOM stands on Fertility

Twelve of fifteen member states now record fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman

Total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime at current birth rates – ranges from 1.36 to 2.66 across CARICOM, according to the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024.

Three economies remain above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman: Haiti (2.66), Guyana (2.41), and Suriname (2.25).

The remaining twelve member states record fertility below replacement. Belize (2.01) sits just under the threshold. At the lower end, Jamaica (1.36), The Bahamas (1.37), and Saint Lucia (1.38) record fertility comparable to Italy, Japan, and South Korea – countries where prolonged low fertility has reshaped labour markets, pension systems, and consumer demand.

Between these ends, fertility across the rest of CARICOM clusters in a narrow band between 1.44 and 1.77, with Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, and Antigua and Barbuda leading this middle group.

Across CARICOM as a whole, only three member states still record fertility at the level required to sustain a population through natural increase alone.

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024. Total fertility rate (live births per woman), 2023 estimates.

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