LETTER: The UPP “New Party” Rebellion Will Never Succeed. Here’s A Better Approach.

This is a warning to the well-intentioned but absolutely foolish MPs and their supporters who are once again plotting to form a new party. This is simply not a viable way to rebuild the UPP after the next elections, and it should not have been a point of casual, much less serious discussion at a time like this. The expectation that a breakaway group will instantly command the support of the majority of current UPP supporters and then use that leverage to bring the Giselites, Pringle and others to heel, re-unifying UPP under a totally different brand? Madness. Just total madness.

First, let me say that I sympathize with the frustration of these reform-minded MPs. The fact that such discussions could be taking place before the ballots are counted is sad though not surprising. We have all heard of the UPP’s polling from two different pollsters which indicated how things are trending under the current leader. The 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 margin between the PM and Pringle (depending on the poll in question) is a brutal thing to people who believe in data.

Also, it could not have been easy watching every single attempt at changing the UPP leadership be defeated, while being told “just go along to get along”

Try #1: Proposed mediation by elder statesmen Baldwin Spencer and Harold Lovell to get Pringle and Gisele to step down. Harold ran away to Canada. There was no Harold-Baldwin tag team pleading for commonsense to prevail at a special membership meeting. Failed.

Try #2: Removing Pringle as Opposition Leader through a majority writing the Governor General to give voters a more attractive option for Prime Minister. Defeated by disunity and disagreements in the reform faction.

Try #3: The first attempt at forming a new party with the ultimate goal of forcing the “old guard” to beg for reunification on their terms. Defeated by disunity and disagreements in the reform faction.

Try #4: Proposing Trevor Walker as an Opposition Leader who could unify the warring factions in a St. Kitts-style coalition. Abandoned after the first push-backs.

Try #5: Attempting to get Harold Lovell back as leader. Defeated by Lovell’s fear and failure to rally the general public to force the UPP Executive to call the Convention. Time has now run out.

Brutal. Just brutal.

So, once again, here we are with renewed discussions and renewed leaks about this dumb new party idea. All of this would be funny if it wasn’t so pitiful. Supposedly sensible MPs and anti-Gisele/Pringle activists are busy discussing names and draft constitutions on griping late night Zoom calls. Instead, these guys should be exclusively focused on trying to save as many seats as possible, especially while getting virtually no support from the UPP campaign.

The UPP should never have gotten to this point. Multiple opportunities to salvage public confidence were wasted over the last 18 months. I therefore don’t even blame Pringle and his handlers. The efforts to save the UPP from decline were poorly executed, belated and anemic.

Here’s the bottom line:

The idea of building a new party around MPs who survive the next polls and who have more public support than Pringle is just too simplistic. If you guys fail to see that, let me help you understand why there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell for this “new party strategy” to restore the grouping of people currently called UPP supporters to its former glory.

First of all, there is no guarantee that the “old guard” left behind in the current UPP will bow to the new party’s demands and fold themselves back in. Isn’t this obvious? If the current leadership and their supporters could ignore data and the call of the national electorate and defiantly setup the party for defeat under Pringle, why would you expect them to see re-unification as a sensible option? These people don’t deal with sense, logic or data. What happens when they hold out, and the blue vote remains split into the long term?

In addition, there is virtually zero chance that the new party will be competitive, especially without the expected reunification, within the next 10 years. In fact it would likely take 20 years or more. Just look at the time between the collapse of the PLM and the UPP’s win in 2004.

This idea of using a new party as a bridge to retaking control of the current UPP must be abandoned if there is any hope of having a viable opposition in this country. It beggars belief that this flawed concept is popping up again, and it’s even worse that it would be actively discussed before the dust of the coming election settles.

Whichever UPP MPs survive the next polls will be in a strong position to build support around a refreshed vision and leadership at the next UPP Convention. After April 30, securing the necessary changes should be easier than ever. An orderly transition at a Convention should be the goal, not pursuing a new party gamble which will likely kill the institution.

UPP and Upset

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