Below-Normal Rainfall, Drought Warning Forecast for Antigua and Barbuda

Antigua and Barbuda is likely to experience below to near normal rainfall in March, with forecasters warning of worsening drought conditions across the island, according to the latest climate outlook issued by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service.

The outlook indicates a 75 percent chance that rainfall for March will fall below to near normal levels, with the most likely total estimated at 40 millimetres. There is a 45 percent chance of below-normal rainfall, compared with a 25 percent chance of above-normal conditions.

Temperatures are also expected to remain slightly cooler than usual or near average, with mean daily temperatures forecast at around 25.5 degrees Celsius. Maximum temperatures are projected near 28.5 degrees Celsius, while minimum temperatures could remain slightly above normal at about 23 degrees Celsius.

The report comes as La Niña conditions remain in effect, although there is a 60 percent chance of a transition to neutral conditions between February and April. Neutral conditions are expected to persist into mid-2026.

Despite the near-term variability, the broader outlook points to continued dryness. For the March to May period, there is an 80 percent likelihood of below to near normal rainfall, with totals estimated around 153 millimetres. Similar trends are expected into the June to August period, with an 80 percent chance of below-normal rainfall.

Drought concerns are intensifying. The meteorological service projects a drought warning across Antigua by the end of March for moderate or worse short-term drought conditions. By May, both short-term and long-term drought warnings are expected to expand across most of the island.

Recent data already show dry conditions in several areas. Over the three-month period ending January, northeastern parts of Antigua experienced severely dry conditions, while the rest of the island was moderately dry.

Rainfall totals in January were also below normal, with Antigua recording an island-wide average of 50 millimetres. Barbuda saw significantly lower totals at just 19 millimetres for the month.

Forecasters caution that limited data for Barbuda makes precise drought assessments difficult, but satellite estimates suggest similar conditions to Antigua.

The outlook underscores the need for continued monitoring and preparedness as the region enters what is typically one of its drier periods.

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