IMF forecasts steady growth for Antigua and Barbuda in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast continued economic growth for Antigua and Barbuda in 2026, while warning that global and domestic risks could slow progress.

In its 2026 Article IV concluding statement, the IMF said the country’s recovery strengthened in 2025, driven by renewed construction activity, strong tourism arrivals and easing inflation.

Economic growth in 2024 was estimated at about 2.5%, rising to around 3% in 2025. The IMF now projects real GDP growth of between 2.5% and 2.8% in 2026, supported by tourism and targeted investment.

The Fund said hosting the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in St John’s in November 2026, along with expanded hotel and port facilities, is expected to boost visitor arrivals and economic activity.

However, it cautioned that global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility and potential declines in revenue from citizenship-by-investment programmes could pose risks. Vulnerability to extreme weather and capacity constraints in the construction sector were also highlighted.

Inflation was reported to have eased significantly from elevated levels in 2024, with price pressures now close to regional averages, largely due to lower transport costs.

The IMF said the current account deficit is expected to narrow gradually, while public debt is projected to continue declining towards the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union’s 60% target, though arrears and financing needs remain concerns.

Prime Minister and Finance Minister Gaston Browne said the assessment reflected the government’s effective management of the economy.

The IMF’s findings follow a month-long mission in January and will be finalised in a report to its Executive Board in the coming weeks.

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