Tammy passed just east of Guadeloupe and is now located near Antigua

The content originally appeared on: Antigua News Room

Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number  14

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023

500 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023

Tammy passed just east of Guadeloupe around 18Z and is now located near Antigua.

Radar imagery continues to show a tight and

well-organized inner core, and the earlier aircraft data indicated

that the hurricane-force winds were confined to that region.

Despite Tammy having passed just east of Dominica and Guadeloupe

today, surface observations indicate that winds did not get

particularly high at those locations due to Tammy being a very

compact hurricane.  The initial intensity is held at 75 kt based on

the earlier aircraft data and steady state appearance in radar

images.  Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are

scheduled to investigate Tammy again this evening.

The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, 335 degrees, at 9 kt.

A continued northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during

the next 12-24 hours, taking the core of Tammy over or just east of

the Leeward Islands during that time.  After the hurricane pulls

north of the islands on Sunday, a turn to the north seems likely

when the system moves in the flow between a ridge over the central

Atlantic and a large trough over the western Atlantic.  The spread

in the guidance continues to be very large in the 4- and 5-day time

frame.  In fact, the difference in the model predicted center

positions of Tammy at day 5 is more than 1000 miles.  The NHC

intensity forecast is similar is the previous one through day 3, but

is again slower than the earlier forecast at days 4 and 5, trending

toward the HCCA guidance.

Tammy is expected to remain over very warm 29 to 30 C SSTs during

the next few days, however, it will also remain in a moderate wind

shear environment.  These conditions will likely result in slow

strengthening during the next few days.  The opportunity for

strengthening will likely end early next when Tammy moves into a

region of stronger shear, which should cause a weakening trend.  The

NHC intensity is again nudged upward, trending toward the latest

consensus models.  However, the intensity forecast at long range is

of low confidence since Tammy’s future strength will likely be

correlated to the track.


Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions

of the Leeward Islands through early Sunday.

The heaviest rains from Tammy will continue over the Leeward

Islands through Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and

urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher


A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore

winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous



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